Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and their civilian leadership continues to demonstrate that its post-Oct. 7 strategy is one where the outcome is non-negotiable victory.
Non-negotiable with foes and friends alike.
Military historians are no doubt busy chronicling the stunning events in April for future war college students. Iran’s terror regime had a very bad week indeed. Between a high-stakes air defense ballet and a geopolitical cold shoulder, it’s clear that state-sponsored terror and the Iranian component of the Axis-of-Evil was dealt a significant blow. It’s a worthwhile task to unpack the calamitous days Iran faced and the reverberating echoes felt across the globe.
For decades, the specter of Iran-Israel tensions has loomed large, characterized by proxy wars and public denouncements. Iran’s ambitions as a regional hegemon have enjoyed wide open running room, especially coming off the heels of a rapprochement with Saudi Arabia brokered by China and billions of dollars pouring in, thanks to the Biden administration’s weakness. By contrast, Washington stood idly by while Hamas and Hezbollah strengthened and the benefits of the peace-enabling Abraham accords all but evaporated.
Of course, this set the stage for the boldest Iranian run operation to date: the Hamas rape and massacre of Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. (hint: if it’s a “proxy” operation, it is still an Iranian operation)
The events that took place in April affirmed Netanyahu’s declaration that Hamas would be destroyed.
Regardless of the warnings, the mullahs made the mistake that Israel would defer to the Biden administration and felt comfortable launching an unprecedented direct attack.
Misstep
On April 13th, Iran launched over 300 ballistic and cruise missiles and drones, aiming to overwhelm Israel’s renowned, multi-tiered air defense systems, including the Iron Dome, David’s Sling and Arrow 3 and 4. The response was swift and decisive: the barrage was mostly neutralized, showcasing the prowess of Israeli technology and strategy. More importantly, the coalition of the U.S., U.K., France and Jordan sent a potent message to Tehran: they stand firmly against Iran’s aggressive maneuvers. King Abdullah of Jordan and President el-Sisi of Egypt, despite the risks, including internal dissent from sizable Palestinian populations, stood with Israel, signaling a significant diplomatic defeat for Iran.
“Forgetting” to let D.C. in on the plan, Israel opted for an elegantly executed surprise attack —“oh, did we say after Passover?” The strike, coinciding with the Ayatollah’s birthday, targeted the Isfahan airbase, a critical military and symbolic site. This maneuver was less about immediate tactical gains and more a strategic message: Israel can hold any Iranian or proxy target at risk of annihilation, 24/7/365.
And for the mullahs?
The fallout for Iran is multifaceted. Militarily, the episode exposed the limitations of Iran’s defensive capabilities against a technologically superior opponent. The muted Iranian response in the aftermath suggests a reevaluation of their strategic posture, likely aware of their underwhelming performance on the international stage.
Geopolitically, the repercussions are even more severe. Iran’s failure undermines its position as a regional power broker and its credibility among its proxy forces. Groups like Hezbollah and Hamas might now question Tehran’s ability to support their causes effectively. Moreover, Iran’s antagonistic approach has consolidated a rare alignment among diverse nations, potentially isolating Iran further.
Russia and China response? So far, crickets.
Bottom Line
Iran’s very bad week is more than a series of military blunders; it’s a poignant reminder of the shifting sands in Middle Eastern geopolitics. As Tehran licks its wounds, the world watches closely. The next moves on this geopolitical chessboard will determine whether Iran recalibrates its approach or doubles down on its longstanding tactics. For now, one thing is clear: the rules of engagement have changed, and Iran’s path forward is fraught with daunting challenges.
As Israel and its unexpected allies have shown, the balance of power may tilt, but the resolve to maintain regional stability remains steadfast. What this means for the Israel-Hamas conflict, well, time will tell. Iran’s week of missteps could either be a wake-up call leading to strategic shift or a precursor to escalation. The coming days will be critical in shaping the Middle East’s complex geopolitical tapestry.
For now, Israel has reestablished deterrence where the U.S. has failed. And in D.C.? The bitter administration just sanctioned an Israeli military unit. A vision of victory versus a vision of appeasement.
“Take the win,” says Washington. Israel prefers to attack as the means to get that win.
Brig. Gen. (ret) Blaine Holt is a co-founder of Restore Liberty, former Deputy Representative to NATO, lifetime member on the Council on Foreign Relations and Newsmax Contributor. The views presented are those of the author and do not represent the views of the U.S. Government, Department of Defense, or its components.
Mike Sarraille, a retired Navy SEAL Officer and former Recon Marine, is the founder and CEO of Talent War Group and founder of Legacy Expeditions. He is a 2023
& 2024 Global Gurus Top 30 Leadership Speaker, author of two Amazon best-selling books, “The Talent War” and “The Everyday Warrior,” and leads Men’s Journal largest initiative the Men’s Journal Everyday Warrior.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of The Daily Caller.