Things have been looking pretty good for Donald Trump lately. While he appears to be dominating in a general matchup against President Joe Biden, as well as in many key demographics, a new poll shows that could all change very quickly. If it does, it’ll be the fault of an incompetent Republican Party that failed to react to the clear warning signs.
A recent Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll revealed that more than half of voters in seven swing states —53% — would not vote for Trump if he were convicted of a crime. Currently, however, the poll shows Trump ahead in each of the states polled — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — by a margin of 3 to 10 points.
In 2020, Biden won Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, all by less than one point, after Hillary Clinton lost all four of them in 2016. Trump will need to recapture lost ground in these states if he hopes to take back the White House, and if the election were held today, he appears to be in a good position to do so.
JUST IN: Donald Trump is now leading Biden in 7 swing states according to a new Bloomberg News-Morning Consult poll.
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According to the poll, Trump is demolishing Biden in Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and is gaining ground in… pic.twitter.com/KV36UFWdGy
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) January 31, 2024
Yet if the Democrats’ legal gambit works as planned, the Bloomberg poll suggests that Trump will not be able to hold onto this narrow margin. This was always the plan: Trump faces 91 felony charges across four different cases, which Democrats hoped would propel him to victory in the primaries but make him into poison for moderates and Independents in the general election. While the first part of the plan worked, so far, the second part seems to be backfiring. Trump remains firmly ahead with Independents, with some polls suggesting even by a two-digit margin, as the shock of the initial indictments appears to have worn off without delivering on what Democrats expected.
That can change quickly, however, if Trump is actually convicted on any of these counts. This is not a marginal issue, and it supersedes even kitchen table concerns. If 53% of swing state voters won’t vote for him by default, no amount of fundraising, campaigning, or policy pushes will matter. If Trump cannot win a majority of voters in battleground states, he cannot win the White House — period.
Admittedly, a conviction in any of the cases seems unlikely. Only one — the classified documents case — stands up to even mild scrutiny. But to convict Trump on it, after both Clinton and Biden failed to face charges on highly similar counts would be a stretch, even in today’s fiery political climate. Therefore it’s easy for Republicans to get cocky — to safely assume that Trump will emerge victorious, riding a wave of momentum into November. Trump’s confidence surely surged after his prosecutor in Georgia, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, beclowned herself spectacularly in her own corruption testimony Thursday. Yet given the stakes, Republicans cannot afford to get complacent. They must still focus on explaining exactly how much of a political witch hunt these cases are. (RELATED: ‘It Is A Lie!’: Judge Halts Proceedings After Fani Willis Erupts On Witness Stand)
This is EXACTLY why I filed my ethics complaint against Fani Willis and Nathan Wade.
Fani Willis admits she has no proof that she reimbursed Nathan Wade for their lavish vacations, but paid rent via an app!
She must be criminally investigated! pic.twitter.com/QIm5x6tcFq
— Marjorie Taylor Greene 🇺🇸 (@mtgreenee) February 15, 2024
Republicans can be tempted to shy away from this issue for two reasons. They are skittish about giving a full-throated defense of Trump and risk being perceived as defending or justifying Jan. 6, one the biggest landmines in contemporary politics. Further, at their core, many Republicans are institutionalists and still feel uncomfortable indicting the corruption of the legal process. They still want to believe the system “works” despite all the evidence to the contrary. So, they avoid the issue altogether, hoping it plays out alright without them having to put their own political capital on the line.
Meanwhile, Democrats spend every waking moment accusing Trump of corruption, insurrection, and myriad felony behaviors. Republican lukewarm hesitation is giving Democrats the upper hand in the battle over the narrative. Unless Republicans can act in as unified a front as Democrats to explain why the charges are meritless, they are preemptively hobbling Trump if and when a conviction comes down the pike. Their political cowardice can easily result in another four years of Biden. (RELATED: Turley Explains How Fani Willis, Alvin Bragg Are Playing Right Into Trump’s Hands)
Even if a conviction does materialize, there’s a chance that voters will be similarly desensitized as the goalposts of political comity move yet again. Before the initial indictments rolled out, the notion of prosecuting a former president seemed momentous, a truly dark omen for the country. Now, it seems almost banal; of course, the Democrats were going to pull something like this, and Trump’s resilience in the polls suggests a majority see through the charade. The same dynamic could happen after a conviction as voters realize the world is not radically different and merely shrug at another scheme that just feels par for the course.
However, Republicans cannot afford to take that chance.